Sunday 3rd November 2013 - The Charlie Hall Chase

This is different from anything I have attempted to write about before so I await your feedback with interest. After the events of yesterday’s racing, I was intrigued to research the history and impact that the Wetherby showcase race has on the finalities of the season. Won multiple times by the likes of Wayward Lad, See More Business and more recently the grand old stager Ollie Magern, the unique left handed test is open to horses 5 years and older and is often used to mark the start of the National Hunt season. This prestigious 3 mile 1 furlong race gained its namesake in 1978, in memory of the trainer Charlie Hall. The £100,000 purse rightfully attracts a variety of combinations year in year out, so other than a starting point for classy staying chasers, does the race serve many clues to performances in the significant latter stages of the season?

To begin investigating the impact of the race, I found it only fitting to use previous years as an example. Without a doubt the race has brought us fans a mouth-watering spectacle for many a year, and last year was no exception, when Silviniaco Conti triumphed in impressive style. The horse went on to win the Betfair Chase at Haydock, the Denman chase at Newbury (formally known as the Aon) and become one of the leading fancies for the almighty Gold Cup. The Charlie Hall is often used to gauge the horse’s chances of becoming a pretender to the Gold Cup crown in March or English Grand National in April. So can this November chase give us any idea of what to expect come the spring? After Wetherby, if a horse succeeds in satisfying connections, it is presented with a number of high class options- including the Hennessey, the King George, or those mentioned previously (Betfair or Denman chase) amongst others.

By using the last 5 winners of the race, and their resulting positions for the remainder of the races they contested in the same season, we can see how horses perform following their victory in the Charlie Hall.

2012: Silviniaco Conti (OR – 156)

Subsequent form: 11F3

2011: Weird Al (OR – 151)

Subsequent form: 3PUF

2010: Nacarat (OR – 158)

Subsequent form: 44314

2009: Deep Purple (OR – 151)

Subsequent form: 1PU46

2008: State Of Play (OR – 152)

Subsequent form: 44

Using this information, a horse requires to roughly run up to a mark of 153(.6) to be in with a chance of firstly conquering the Charlie Hall. If you are a racing fan you understand the quality of horses that contest is good, yet in relation to those who win the best of the best races later on, often they are just below standard in regards of ability. (Silviniaco Conti is just one example of a horse to oppose this). From the above, it shows that on average horses run 4.4 times after becoming victorious in the race. From looking at their form, after winning the race, in general they then appear to deteriorate throughout the season- highlighting the fact that to have a horse win a Charlie Hall chase, it would be a positive if it peaked early in the season. In the last 5 renewals we can see that the targets or long term aspirations for the winners usually became the Grand National or the Gold Cup (as previously mentioned). 0 of the past 5 winners have won a Gold Cup or Grand National. Obviously statistics and trends are there to be broken and See More Business (the only horse since 1990 to go on and win the Gold Cup) has proved this. However it would be sensible to add that he was a much better horse than any of the recent winners, his highest official rating being 177. Again, since 1990 no horse has gone from winning the Charlie Hall to win the English Grand National either.


 

See More Business- the horse that won 3 Charlie Hall chases and a Cheltenham Gold Cup.

 

To conclude, this shows that the Charlie Hall chase is a popular starting point for high quality staying chasers, however if you are looking for a horse to go on and triumph in the later stages of the season, it may be wise to look elsewhere. Do we think Harry Topper is destined for more big race success this season, to follow in the hoof prints of last year’s victor Silivianco Conti? Or will the Kim Bailey trained chaser fall short of glory later in the season as so many have done in previous years? Please let me know your thoughts via Twitter (@mp_horseracing) or post a comment below.