Saturday 30th November 2013 - Fighting Fifth Preview

Fighting Fifth Preview

This is only a brief preview of this year’s Newcastle Champion Hurdle Trial as other events this Saturday are  forefront in my mind, yet it does not fall short of the mark and should give us lots to look forward to. By reviewing each horse’s chances individually I hope to clarify which have serious claims and look ahead to long-term targets, as after all, this race is often used as a stepping stone for better things.

Cotton Mill 20-1:

I think 20-1 realistically reflects this horse’s chance, he was fancied for the Elite and it’s fair to say he disappointed some people considerably on that occasion. Crucially his Wincanton victor reposes here and has to be the preferred contestant.

Duke of Navan 16-1:

My pick of the race is Duke of Navan. This unexposed 5 year old has shown so much potential when notching up an impressive series of wins, albeit only at Kelso. Since he began his National Hunt career (only 6 runs ago) he has been pitched in at the top level, running against the likes of promising Eduard, classy River Maigue and recent Cheltenham novice chase winner Dodging Bullets. This goes to show how much his connections think of him. Admittedly he has a lot to find and it is his first run of the season but I see him as a really interesting horse. Seeing as he’s 16-1 currently, I believe he’s value in a really interesting race, especially on each way terms. Discard Duke of Navan at your peril.

Grumeti 9-1:

A short time ago Grumeti was one of the most exciting, well established and consistent novice hurdlers in training. Upon his return to action he posted a performance shy of his best, finishing 4^th in the Scottish Champion Hurdle to Court Minstrel, although that horse is regarded as “the best hurdler” Evan Williams has ever trained, he’s not gone to replicate that performance this term. Sametegal is the only other horse that has boosted the form, with Ifandbutwhynot falling late on, so I don’t think that race has the strongest look to it and surely he wasn’t at his best. He isn’t always the best coming back from a break so it remains to be seen whether he can pose a threat to the winning position but I wish him well on his return to the top level over jumps.

Melodic Rendezvous 5-2:

I mentioned this horse in my Elite Hurdle review on my blog and I fail to see how you couldn’t be impressed with the performance he gave. At the start of the season I was keen to add this horse to my ten to follow, even though I had a few doubts as he didn’t seem to beat anything of much calibre last season, especially seeing as the Puffin Billy episode is continuously losing its appeal. He looks very much a Champion Hurdle contender and he should give My Tent Or Yours something to think about here. He jumps, travels and picks up on a variety of ground conditions and I feel you’d have to have him on your shortlist. Barring any serious mishaps he should be in the firing line and the victory is his for the taking if he can stamp his authority on the favourite (from a betting perspective), however personally I hold a preference for this horse.

My Tent Or Yours 8-11:

My Tent Or Yours is the favourite for this race and many people believe he will win the Champion Hurdle, even at this stage in the season. Connections had a similar scenario for the ill-fated Darlan (RIP). From my view this horse travels extremely well in his races, so much so at times his enthusiasm can result to his downfall in the latter stages of the race, but on his day he looks something special. Like Melodic Rendezvous he is a really consistent horse, and it has to be remembered that he has never been out of the first two in his life- I think something will have to be seriously amiss were we to see that statistic broken tomorrow. As I said previously, I prefer the year older Elite winner seeing as he has the benefit of a run but for many this horse has already won, and confidence often speaks volumes.

Rock Relief 150-1:

Rock Relief is the outsider of the field at 150-1 respectively and shows no reason why he shouldn’t be that price. You would struggle to make a case for him here.

Stormy Weather 100-1:

Likewise, this grey has ran in the race before behind Overturn, but in truth that offers little to suggest he’ll figure here as he the second least fancied horse in the race.

Cockney Sparrow 12-1:

Currently 4^th best in the market this four year old filly offers something new to the race being the only female engaged. John Quinn’s handling of this improving horse has been excellent and she deserves to take her chance here. I can’t see her progressing to Champion Hurdle potential, particularly due to the strength of this year’s renewal, but she has a considerable chance here and rightfully deserves the incline in class. Her last two victories will stand her in good stead yet I can’t see her beating the likes of Melodic Rendezvous and My Tent Or Yours. Her trainer believes she has a chance but referred to one of the others not displaying their best, so you would think a place would be the realistic target, with a future view to possibly the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham, rather than the Champion.

Sunday 24th November 2013 - Betfair Chase Review

Saturday’s Betfair Chase, registered as the Lancashire Chase, was beforehand titled ‘a mini Gold Cup’ and the almighty hype was answered in truly typical national hunt style with a big shock. With quality racing elsewhere, admittedly overshadowed by the minimalistic fields, this was certainly the show-piece on what promised to be a huge day regarding future plans for the best staying chasers England has/had to offer. Cue Card emphatically silenced the doubters (one of whom was myself), with a bold front-running display to notch up “the best performance of his career”, beating the likes of consistent and previous victor of the Gold Cup Long Run, reigning Gold Cup hero Bobs Worth, class act Silviniaco Conti, flashy young pretender Dynaste, and the enigmatic old rogue Tidal Bay.
There was little hiding place for error in a strongly ran race from start to finish by the winner, which surprisingly contributed to the downfall of the more experienced horses. Ironic as it seems, being perhaps one of the most questioned runners, Cue Card has really made his mark on the race and obliged in style. It was a welcomed win for team Tizzard, the father and son combination that are not shy of success yet have arguably not gained the credit they have deserved, until now.

Dynaste ran a gallant race in second for the in-form stable of David Pipe, yet was simply stunned by Cue Cards relentless gallop and solid jumping ability, he travelled the best of all into the race but never posed a serious threat to the latter mentioned. He has lost very little in defeat and lives to fight another day, though it remains to be seen whether winning the best race of them all in March is within his capabilities. You couldn’t be discouraged however and he could find more improvement, the King George looks the ideal race for him next considering his brilliant Feltham win as a novice.

Silviniaco Conti ran a good race, but ultimately disappointed his supporters with a rather lack lustre run, in addition, Far West also was beaten, so the form of Paul Nicholls’ string has to be questioned. Others posted worse efforts though and he would be one to keep on the right side of- who knows how last year’s Gold Cup would have finished had he stood up at the third last? Overall I wouldn’t be overly disheartened by his showing as he jumped and stayed on well, yet from a horse of this calibre (with a highest official rating of 175) you would have hoped for more, he was beaten comprehensively by the better horse on the day.

Long Run finished in fourth position after his horrendously bad yet justifiable run against Harry Topper in the Charlie Hall. Not for the first time his jumping down the Haydock back straight led to his demise, allowing the others to flood past, something that he could simply not get away with in a race of this quality. He’s ultra-consistent and an admirable horse for what he has achieved, he is still only 8 yet it seems his time has passed, is there any more to come from the Henderson trained horse? I highly doubt he would be able to replicate the great Kauto Star in regaining the Cheltenham Gold Cup now.

Tidal Bay was fancied by many to go well in this race and is one of the most popular horses in training. With Sam Twiston-Davies aboard again and a notable second to Imperial Commander in the Betfair Chase previously to boast, he looked to hold a decent chance. In a nutshell he was always at the rear, jumped reasonably and stayed on at the one pace. The main question is where to go from here, is the Gold Cup still a logical long term target? Or will he return to the scene of his second place in the Hennessey next weekend? The Grand National is also an option for the later stages of the season yet weight would surely pay a significant part in that plan. I expected him to stay on better than he did as the pace was so fast, maybe he wasn’t in the mood on this occasion!

Surely the talking horse of the race has to be Bobs Worth- with his illustrious record going left-handed, his preference for the softer ground and his form fresh all being discarded as he finished sixth, 40 lengths behind Cue Card. This suggests something was clearly amiss. However he was eased by jockey Barry Geraghty, so I’m sure he’ll be back to his best another day. I think it was admirable how they looked after him. After hitting a flat spot when winning the Gold Cup, he stayed on again up the hill, he was one of the first main players off the bridle here and wasn’t able to recover, even though the ground conditions were similar to those he experienced and revelled in at Cheltenham. There’s no doubt Bobs Worth it a tough little animal and even though he is often considered a festival horse, he won the Hennessey very well, which could be his next port of call. Fitness may also have been the issue, but I think it’s a run that may well be forgotten for numerous reasons.

Little needs to be said about The Giant Bolster, whom also runs well at Cheltenham. He proved many of us to be correct this outing; he is just slightly below top class. He’s a brave horse who runs well when punching above his weight and no one can begrudge his owners for running him in these top class races as he clearly has talent, but it was never going to be enough on this day.

Roi Du Mee was pulled up unsurprisingly after being up with the leader for a long way, this highlights how well Cue Card did stay, as those who took him on were legless at the time when he was still forging on relentlessly, showing his ability to stretch again and stay on in the final furlong. Roi Du Mee is a smart horse in his own right, and I think he has another big race in him, yet it may be wise to stay the other side of the Irish Sea to see him at his best and therefore another Grade 1 victory may not come easy to the Gigginstown chaser.

Overall, Saturday’s racing was exciting and informative, Cue Card was simply awesome, yet without being too negative, I think it’s safe to say the likes of Silviniaco Conti, Tidal Bay and especially Bobs Worth ran below par. Personally the winner doesn’t hit me as a Gold Cup horse, yet he may well continue to do well elsewhere, or progress to prove me incorrect. Crucially it will be intriguing to see how the form works out and whether it bares much relevance- several horses where having their first run of the season (the winner had the benefit of a run) and I think the form of the stable counts for a lot at this stage in the season. Finally, I would just like to give my congratulations to Colin and Joe Tizzard as I think they have done a very good job with this horse and appear to be one of the most respected, well-liked partnerships in national hunt racing today.

Monday 11th November 2013 - Elite Hurdle Review

First off, as it has been by far one of the most eventful weeks in racing I have witnessed for a long time, I would like to add my congratulations to Tony McCoy for reaching 4000 winners. (Also, due to it being Remembrance Sunday yesterday, I found it respectful to delay this posts publication, I wouldn't want to be promoting it on such an occasion). It was only a few weeks ago I wrote a piece in tribute to the Champion jockey (this can be seen one of my other posts) to everything he has given to the sport, it would certainly not be the same without him. It is a truly incredible feat, and to echo the great, late words of Sir Henry Cecil, regarding Frankel, "I'd be very surprised if there's ever been better" and ever will be...

Landmarks aside, Saturday's racing was a superb prospect beforehand and more than justified the hype. Wincanton's Badger Ales meeting is always popular and usually provides spectators with a fabulous day as often big names are declared and again gets people anticipating the jumps season in earnest. Although I had success when proudly tipping/advising Alfie Spinner e/w at 33-1 in the main race of the day, I wish to focus on the previous race, the Elite Hurdle, in which my luck seemed to have ran out. On my previous blog I did a piece on my Ten To Follow, (sadly this is now no longer viewable) one of which was yesterdays returning Melodic Rendezvous. Yet ironically I was encouraged by Harry Fry's promising 7 year old Karinga Dancer whom opposed- prior to the race he had won convincingly at Aintree yet it seemingly it hadn't taken a lot out of him, and on his last visit to the track had won by 10 lengths. Plus the fact that it appeared Melodic Rendezvous didn't beat a whole lot last season, especially with the entire Puffin Billy episode continuously loosing its appeal. But as ever, racing finds ways to remind those who fail to elude to it's unpredictability! As it turned out Karinga Dancer was unfathomably disappointing, he was the first horse off the bridle and only managed a tame 5th, and Melodic Rendezvous made me look an utter fool by winning like an extremely good animal. It would also be wise to add that the horses beaten were of a high standard too: Cotton Mill, Far West, Ahyaknowyerself and Ruler Of All respectively. Cotton Mill has always been a nice horse but personally I'm not his biggest fan, he was another who didn't travel particularly well when they began to quicken at the head of affairs yet will surely improve for his effort. Far West ran pretty much as expected and we know he's very good, it will be interesting to see how the Triumph Hurdle form with Our Conor works out. Personally I think Ahyaknowyerself ran a very good race in 3rd as well, yet this could just be subject to the fact he was one of the fitter contestants. The way the winner slipped coming around the bend and was able to pick up again after missing the 2nd last shows that he is clearly capable of better things, and must have secured himself in the Champion Hurdle picture now. He reportedly 'would need the run' by trainer Jeremy Scott, yet ran right to the line and stayed on impressively- this poses the question: How good could he be when fully fit and primed to run?




The 2013 Elite Hurdle winner, Melodic Rendezvous. Is he destined for Champion Hurdle victory come March?

It is often hard to judge the form at the beginning of the season and sometimes it does not always bare much importance, yet instinctually I feel Saturday's race will work out fine. For those who are interested, as mentioned previously, I did do a Ten To Follow piece, and the horses mentioned were: Melodic Rendezvous, Jezki, Inish Island, Godsmejudge, Theatre Guide, Tidal Bay, Montbazon, L'Unique, African Gold and (for those who follow me on Twitter) of course Last Instalment. Also on Saturday the winner of the Novice Chase at Wincanton was Wonderful Charm, so I found it appropriate to share the photo my stepfather took of him pre World Hurdle on the Thursday at this years Cheltenham festival.

A glace of determination from the masterful Ruby Walsh as Wonderful Charm circles at the start. (I was very jealous of my stepdad who doesn't bare much interest for racing! I was sadly at school at the time.)

Sunday 3rd November 2013 - The Charlie Hall Chase

This is different from anything I have attempted to write about before so I await your feedback with interest. After the events of yesterday’s racing, I was intrigued to research the history and impact that the Wetherby showcase race has on the finalities of the season. Won multiple times by the likes of Wayward Lad, See More Business and more recently the grand old stager Ollie Magern, the unique left handed test is open to horses 5 years and older and is often used to mark the start of the National Hunt season. This prestigious 3 mile 1 furlong race gained its namesake in 1978, in memory of the trainer Charlie Hall. The £100,000 purse rightfully attracts a variety of combinations year in year out, so other than a starting point for classy staying chasers, does the race serve many clues to performances in the significant latter stages of the season?

To begin investigating the impact of the race, I found it only fitting to use previous years as an example. Without a doubt the race has brought us fans a mouth-watering spectacle for many a year, and last year was no exception, when Silviniaco Conti triumphed in impressive style. The horse went on to win the Betfair Chase at Haydock, the Denman chase at Newbury (formally known as the Aon) and become one of the leading fancies for the almighty Gold Cup. The Charlie Hall is often used to gauge the horse’s chances of becoming a pretender to the Gold Cup crown in March or English Grand National in April. So can this November chase give us any idea of what to expect come the spring? After Wetherby, if a horse succeeds in satisfying connections, it is presented with a number of high class options- including the Hennessey, the King George, or those mentioned previously (Betfair or Denman chase) amongst others.

By using the last 5 winners of the race, and their resulting positions for the remainder of the races they contested in the same season, we can see how horses perform following their victory in the Charlie Hall.

2012: Silviniaco Conti (OR – 156)

Subsequent form: 11F3

2011: Weird Al (OR – 151)

Subsequent form: 3PUF

2010: Nacarat (OR – 158)

Subsequent form: 44314

2009: Deep Purple (OR – 151)

Subsequent form: 1PU46

2008: State Of Play (OR – 152)

Subsequent form: 44

Using this information, a horse requires to roughly run up to a mark of 153(.6) to be in with a chance of firstly conquering the Charlie Hall. If you are a racing fan you understand the quality of horses that contest is good, yet in relation to those who win the best of the best races later on, often they are just below standard in regards of ability. (Silviniaco Conti is just one example of a horse to oppose this). From the above, it shows that on average horses run 4.4 times after becoming victorious in the race. From looking at their form, after winning the race, in general they then appear to deteriorate throughout the season- highlighting the fact that to have a horse win a Charlie Hall chase, it would be a positive if it peaked early in the season. In the last 5 renewals we can see that the targets or long term aspirations for the winners usually became the Grand National or the Gold Cup (as previously mentioned). 0 of the past 5 winners have won a Gold Cup or Grand National. Obviously statistics and trends are there to be broken and See More Business (the only horse since 1990 to go on and win the Gold Cup) has proved this. However it would be sensible to add that he was a much better horse than any of the recent winners, his highest official rating being 177. Again, since 1990 no horse has gone from winning the Charlie Hall to win the English Grand National either.


 

See More Business- the horse that won 3 Charlie Hall chases and a Cheltenham Gold Cup.

 

To conclude, this shows that the Charlie Hall chase is a popular starting point for high quality staying chasers, however if you are looking for a horse to go on and triumph in the later stages of the season, it may be wise to look elsewhere. Do we think Harry Topper is destined for more big race success this season, to follow in the hoof prints of last year’s victor Silivianco Conti? Or will the Kim Bailey trained chaser fall short of glory later in the season as so many have done in previous years? Please let me know your thoughts via Twitter (@mp_horseracing) or post a comment below.