Fighting Fifth Preview
This is only a brief preview of this year’s Newcastle
Champion Hurdle Trial as other events this Saturday are forefront in my mind, yet it does not fall
short of the mark and should give us lots to look forward to. By reviewing each
horse’s chances individually I hope to clarify which have serious claims and
look ahead to long-term targets, as after all, this race is often used as a
stepping stone for better things.
Cotton Mill 20-1:
I think 20-1 realistically reflects this horse’s chance, he
was fancied for the Elite and it’s fair to say he disappointed some people
considerably on that occasion. Crucially his Wincanton victor reposes here and
has to be the preferred contestant.
Duke of Navan 16-1:
My pick of the race is Duke of Navan. This unexposed 5 year
old has shown so much potential when notching up an impressive series of wins,
albeit only at Kelso. Since he began his National Hunt career (only 6 runs ago)
he has been pitched in at the top level, running against the likes of promising
Eduard, classy River Maigue and recent Cheltenham novice chase winner Dodging
Bullets. This goes to show how much his connections think of him. Admittedly he
has a lot to find and it is his first run of the season but I see him as a
really interesting horse. Seeing as he’s 16-1 currently, I believe he’s value
in a really interesting race, especially on each way terms. Discard Duke of
Navan at your peril.
Grumeti 9-1:
A short time ago Grumeti was one of the most exciting, well
established and consistent novice hurdlers in training. Upon his return to
action he posted a performance shy of his best, finishing 4th in the
Scottish Champion Hurdle to Court Minstrel, although that horse is regarded as
“the best hurdler” Evan Williams has ever trained, he’s not gone to replicate
that performance this term. Sametegal is the only other horse that has boosted
the form, with Ifandbutwhynot falling late on, so I don’t think that race has
the strongest look to it and surely he wasn’t at his best. He isn’t always the
best coming back from a break so it remains to be seen whether he can pose a
threat to the winning position but I wish him well on his return to the top
level over jumps.
Melodic Rendezvous
5-2:
I mentioned this horse in my Elite Hurdle review on my blog
and I fail to see how you couldn’t be impressed with the performance he gave.
At the start of the season I was keen to add this horse to my ten to follow,
even though I had a few doubts as he didn’t seem to beat anything of much
calibre last season, especially seeing as the Puffin Billy episode is
continuously losing its appeal. He looks very much a Champion Hurdle contender and
he should give My Tent Or Yours something to think about here. He jumps, travels
and picks up on a variety of ground conditions and I feel you’d have to have
him on your shortlist. Barring any serious mishaps he should be in the firing
line and the victory is his for the taking if he can stamp his authority on the
favourite (from a betting perspective), however personally I hold a preference
for this horse.
My Tent Or Yours
8-11:
My Tent Or Yours is the favourite for this race and many
people believe he will win the Champion Hurdle, even at this stage in the
season. Connections had a similar scenario for the ill-fated Darlan (RIP). From my view this horse travels extremely well in
his races, so much so at times his enthusiasm can result to his downfall in the
latter stages of the race, but on his day he looks something special. Like
Melodic Rendezvous he is a really consistent horse, and it has to be remembered
that he has never been out of the first two in his life- I think something will
have to be seriously amiss were we to see that statistic broken tomorrow. As I
said previously, I prefer the year older Elite winner seeing as he has the
benefit of a run but for many this horse has already won, and confidence often
speaks volumes.
Rock Relief 150-1:
Rock Relief is the outsider of the field at 150-1
respectively and shows no reason why he shouldn’t be that price. You would
struggle to make a case for him here.
Stormy Weather 100-1:
Likewise, this grey has ran in the race before behind
Overturn, but in truth that offers little to suggest he’ll figure here as he
the second least fancied horse in the race.
Cockney Sparrow 12-1:
Currently 4th best in the market this four year
old filly offers something new to the race being the only female engaged. John
Quinn’s handling of this improving horse has been excellent and she deserves to
take her chance here. I can’t see her progressing to Champion Hurdle potential,
particularly due to the strength of this year’s renewal, but she has a
considerable chance here and rightfully deserves the incline in class. Her last
two victories will stand her in good stead yet I can’t see her beating the
likes of Melodic Rendezvous and My Tent Or Yours. Her trainer believes she has a
chance but referred to one of the others not displaying their best, so you
would think a place would be the realistic target, with a future view to
possibly the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham, rather than the Champion.
No comments:
Post a Comment