Thursday 24th April 2014 - Bet365 Gold Cup Preview

Bet365 Gold Cup Chase Preview

Sandown Park’s jumps finale meeting is heralded as the swansong to the National Hunt season. Previously boasting a dual purpose card with both flat and jumps races, the action now solely revolves around the larger obstacles. The £150,000 purse attracts the top division of seasoned, staying handicappers that have contested some of the more prestigious events that season. Due to its position on the calendar, the race can often spring a surprise, especially given its marathon trip of 3m5 ½ furlongs. However, its illustrious role of honour has recently been blessed with names such as Monkerhostin, Tidal Bay and dual winner Ad Hoc, proving that it is no easy race to win. Sandown Park is a notoriously difficult jumping track, made evermore testing by its merciless uphill finish. The combination of accuracy and bravery is required in abundance. Weight is certainly a crucial factor in this race, as with the exception of Tidal Bay, no horse in the last 7 runnings has won carrying in excess of 11 stone. With horses heralding from the largest yards in Britain, negotiating 24 fences, it is again set to be a joyous spectacle.

 

The classy yet enigmatic Tidal Bay, beating Roalco De Farges in the 2012 running. 

 

As declarations are not considered definite at this stage and this is a relatively early preview, I have chosen to discuss the chances of the main contenders along with horses of personal interest.

The logical starting point would be with top weight Houblon Des Obeaux. Venitia Williams’s gelding is allotted a mammoth weight of 11-12, the same as Tidal Bay carried to victory in 2012. Tidal Bay won off a mark of 160, beating Roalco De Farges (whom is back this year) by 15 lengths. After finishing last of 6 at Aintree, Houblon Des Obeaux returns on 158. Although this 2lb margin doesn’t seem impossible, Tidal Bay is rated 171 at best, whereas Houblon Des Obeaux only 159. This shows how much he has to find. Although he has performed creditably on numerous occasions this season, being a dual winner, it is safe to say Houblon Des Obeaux would need to find significant improvement to win here. It is also wise to note that although he has been taking on much superior opposition; his jumping is often a subject of concern. A tactic often employed by his jockey is to ensure the horse has a clear view of the obstacles- in such a competitive and busy handicap; this may be an impossible task to complete. He also has little course experience, his only run at Sandown being 3^rd to Captain Conan last year. Venitia Williams is not afraid to take on the big boys, having been successful countless times in events similar to this. Her tremendous record this term stands her in good stead, yet Houblon Des Obeaux looks up against it.

Same Difference is currently favourite for the race off the back of an encouraging run in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. Spring Heeled won that day, who re-opposes here. 2^nd to Quentin Collognes last year carrying 11-7, Same Difference looks to have a fighting chance. Spring Heeled is gifted the weight of 11-3 after his Cheltenham exertions whereas Same Difference carries only 10-5. On this evidence, he must surely be seriously considered and would be my pick of the two. However, he’s not always the most reliable, so you would be taking a chance with him. Nigel Twiston-Davies has obviously framed this as a target and having missed Aintree, he should be in the form of his life for another bold bid.

 

Same Difference (right) finishing a gallant 2nd to Quentin Collognes in the race last year.

 

Summery Justice is another of Venitia Williams’s battalions and I think he could have slipped under the radar on this occasion. He finished a staying on 5^th to Al Co last time in the Scottish Grand National and has been a model of consistency this season. He’s done connections proud in a number of staying events, such as when 4^th to Goulanes in the Midlands Grand National and when beating Burton Port at Newbury by 7 lengths. He’s currently 33-1 and has only gone up 2lb for his performance at Ayr. Although doubts remain whether the Scottish endeavour took too much out of Summery Justice, many horses in the field have the same problem. He’s relatively lightly raced in comparison to others’ in his yard and I think he has a great e/w chance.

If ever a race was made for a horse, you’d have to say Any Currency would love this challenge. Often lazy horses plug on through beaten ones and climb to a last gasp victory in this race, most notably Poker De Sivola 3 years ago. Any Currency ran right up to his best last time out, failing by a nose to the gallant Balthazar King in the cross country race at Cheltenham. This form has been franked as Balthazar King finished 2^nd in the Grand National and 4^th placed Duke of Lucca also won at Aintree. This is rock solid form. Any Currency’s record at the track reads: 815343, and for a quirky horse this has to be admired. Again, he’s not the most reliable but has proved himself in this contest previously when 3^rd to Tidal Bay. It’s safe to say that was one of the strongest renewals for years and he’s another I like with a feather weight, 10-0.

Caroline Keevil had one of her best days as a trainer in the Betbright chase at Kempton when her stable star Bally Legend came home in front. In doing so, he beat Paul Nicholls’s Bury Parade by 1 ¼ lengths. He is another consistent performer who has really put himself on the map this season, and to think Bury Parade carries 12lb more and is half the price of Bally Legend, I see him as potential value in the race. Surely this shows trainer bias as I’m sure if Bally Legend was with a more popular yard; his price would reflect his chances more realistically. His regular rider Ian Popham has the choice between him and Any Currency however, and one would guess he would steer towards the latter. Obviously Bally Legend has more to find, as do many of these, but I thought he was an interesting contender, although his lack of experience at Sandown is a concern.

 

The hugely likeable Bally Legend winning at Kempton (centre), beating Bury Parade (right).

 

 OTHERS TO NOTE:

Ardkilly Witness for the inform Grand National winning trainer Dr Richard Newland, a revitalised Godsmejudge after a hugely credible 2^nd at Ayr who boasts almighty talent on his day and Rose of the Moon who ran so well for a long way at Aintree before bursting a blood vessel. Mountainous is another classier horse that didn’t fair best at Aintree that could go well here.

 

 

VERDICT:

Although boring, Same Difference looks to have the well-supported chance, taking into consideration his course form, weight and season record. ANY CURRENCY is my pick for the race, if he is on song he should post another good effort and I think it could be his for the taking and finally a day in the sun for him and his unlucky connections. His price is also quite reasonable but he’s still a risky horse to be tying your flag to the mast with. Summery Justice and Bally Legend are currently 20-1 and 33-1, both of whom I would give an e/w chance.

 

Red hot form! Any Currency (centre) finishing 2nd to Balthazar King (left) and Duke of Lucca (right).